A Different Primary Season

Boy, my theory about how presidential candidates win their party's nomination may be going right out the window in 2008. I used to tell my government students, and anyone else that would listen, that the Democratic candidates had to go as far left as possible and the Republican candidates had to run to the right. We refer to that as "playing to the base."

With Super Tuesday fast approaching it looks as if Sen. John McCain may lock up the Republican nomination. That's shocking to me for more than one reason. First, a sitting U.S. senator has not won the presidency since John Kennedy in 1960. I think Americans largely shy away from voting for members of the House and Senate for president because they are seen as the Washington crowd that creates all of our country's problems to begin with. So, why would we choose one of them to try to turn it around? Interestingly, three of the four candidates who appear to have a chance to win the general election are currently U.S. senators.

Secondly, McCain has built a terrible reputation for himself amongst many conservatives in this country. Many conservative icons have either said that they will never vote for him, or they would basically close their eyes as they voted for him and try to pretend like they didn't. McCain has not shown his conservative side when it comes to legislation he has co-authored with liberal senators regarding campaign finance reform and illegal immigration. That sealed his fate with a lot of conservatives.

McCain is very conservative on some issues, but he is viewed as a moderate Republican. Some people have argued that he has a better chance against the Democrat in the general election because he would garner more votes from independents. But there's a huge problem that those people aren't considering. If McCain is the Republican nominee, then numerous conservatives will not show up to the voting booths in November. Many have made it clear that they will not support him, even if that means not voting at all.

The next few days are going to be extremely interesting. I really hope that Mitt Romney does well on Super Tuesday. I'm just more comfortable with a successful businessman and governor with an impressive track record being my next president. As conservative as Romney appears to be, I have been very surprised that he hasn't emerged as the clear choice for Republicans.

McCain, Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama represent the Washington establishment that we've all grown to despise. Romney can become part of the establishment, but let's give him four or eight years to do so.